As part of the PBS TeacherLine's online course NASA Resources for Teaching Global Climate Change in High School, a project on a specific future emissions scenario from the IPCC report was assigned. The presentation we created addresses four specific fossil fuels which will likely be tapped as we run out of existing fossil fuel peak sources, as well as how greenhouse emissions might be reduced and/or sequestered.
I have provided a link to the current version of the PowerPoint presentation my partner and I created. As we modify the presentation, I will update the PowerPoint available through the link.
https://app.box.com/s/4rq5bc8yvzibx1g2ya0l
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Saturday, February 8, 2014
BLOG POST 4: M Dale Streigle - Greenhouse Gases, Feedbacks and Scenarios
Scientists have know for many years that particular gases in Earth's atmosphere help retain heat at Earth's surface. If we had no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, Earth would be very cold. It has been projected that with no greenhouse effect, Earth's average surface temperature would be about 0 degrees F. (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/ma_01/). Of concern is that the modern, industrialized world is pumping such copious quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that humans are driving climate change (http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/). The accompanying website shows how much three greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) have risen since the industrial revolution (http://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/greenhousegases/industrialrevolution.html). It seems very reasonable to state that as greenhouse gases increase, the climate will trend toward warmer average weather.
Regarding the emission scenarios, I think it likely that the A1FI scenario will play out. In that scenario, the world's population continues to increase and relies even more on fossil fuels for energy (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html). As much as advocates for alternative energy would like us to change, barriers are continuously placed in the way of energy sources such as nuclear power. Wind projects, while touted as clean, are also blocked by people who believe they would spoil their view. Cape Wind, off of Cape Cod, is gradually gaining steam, but was blocked by quite some time by politicians who felt its development would spoil their ocean view (http://www.capewind.org/index.php).
As shown in the graphic to the right, the highest levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are achieved in the A1FI scenario (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html). Temperatures will continue to rise, as increased levels of greenhouse gases enact climate forcings based on the ability of the greenhouse gases to retain heat. As Earth gets warmer, more evaporation will occur from the oceans, lakes and streams which result in much more water vapor in the atmosphere. This is a feedback event which causes temperatures to increase even more rapidly and temperatures to rise to even higher levels. Water vapor is a very powerful greenhouse gas, and enhances the effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The graphic below projects Earth's temperatures in the years to come.
About half-way down the page on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's website (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html) is a link to a pop-up which does a nice job of answering the question, "How can the use of climate models help in the understanding of these uncertainties" (regarding the effects of climate feedback). By going to the EPA side and clicking on the image (as seen below) one can work through and increase your understanding of how how such climate models help. Working through the topics and slides helps understand that complex mathematics are used to project possibilities of what might occur. This pop-up explains how the mathematical models are tested under current climate conditions, takes steps to explore past changes in climate, and discusses concerns for the future. In its final slide, the pop-up suggests that with an informed citizenry, we can develop and adopt practices which help mitigates the scale of climate change, and might help us adapt to living in a future, warmer world.
Regarding the emission scenarios, I think it likely that the A1FI scenario will play out. In that scenario, the world's population continues to increase and relies even more on fossil fuels for energy (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html). As much as advocates for alternative energy would like us to change, barriers are continuously placed in the way of energy sources such as nuclear power. Wind projects, while touted as clean, are also blocked by people who believe they would spoil their view. Cape Wind, off of Cape Cod, is gradually gaining steam, but was blocked by quite some time by politicians who felt its development would spoil their ocean view (http://www.capewind.org/index.php).
Saturday, February 1, 2014
BLOG POST 3: M. Dale Streigle - Climate Forcings and Feedbacks
1) Regarding the question of "Which climate forcings and feedbacks are most prevalent in either your local area or in the United States as a whole and why might this be so?", I will address the issue pertaining to Las Vegas in particular and Nevada in general.
Over the years, development has greatly altered the surface of the Las Vegas basin from natural to artificial. In so doing, the albedo has been drastically affected. As per the interactive "Earth's Albedo and Global Warming" (http://www.pbs.org/teacherline/courselinks/x7warq/), surfaces with high albedos reflect much insolation (as visible light) back towards outer space while surfaces with low albedos absorb much insolation, changing the energy of visible light to the longer wavelength infrared light (heat). The original surface of the Vegas area was light-colored, dry soil. This has largely been replaced by concrete and asphalt, hundreds of thousands of buildings with roofs darker than the original soil, and scattered golf courses and swimming pools.
As shown in this table of albedos of different materials (http://ecosystems.wcp.muohio.edu/studentresearch/climatechange03/snowball/web%20page/images/Albedo%20Chart.jpg), the original, light-colored dry soil of the region reflected up to 45% of incoming solar radiation (insolation). Between the asphalt and darker colored concrete and roofs, and considering the absorptive effects of water in pools, only from 3% to 15% of insolation is reflected. Consequently, the altered surface is a forcing which causes the Vegas area to have higher temperatures than normal. Development is not slowing down. As development encroaches further into the surrounding desert, we can expect our temperatures to get even hotter.
The Center for Integrative Environmental Research released a report in 2008 titled Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Nevada (http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Nevada%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf). In this article, the authors discuss that, "In the last century Nevada has experienced a slight increase in temperature, increased precipitation, a shortening of the snow season, and increased storms in general (USGCRP 2000). A .5°F increase over the last 100 years has resulted in more heat waves and more aridity (EPA 1998)." Regarding future impacts of climate change in Nevada, the authors state, "By 2100, the average temperatures for Nevada are expected to increase by 3-4°F in the spring and fall and by 5-6°F in the summer and winter (EPA report 1998). El Niño also is predicted to increase in frequency and duration as a result of global climate change (Trenberth and Hoar 1997). Increasing temperatures will affect the rate of water evaporation and precipitation in the state. Precipitation will become increasingly erratic in the coming century with decreases expected in the summer months of about 10 percent and potential increases of 15-40 percent in the fall, spring, and winter months (EPA Nevada Report, 1998). In general, Nevada is expected to have wetter winters and more arid summers as the subtropical dry zones for the whole planet are projected to increase (USGCRP 2000; Fang Ting, Science). Higher temperatures and increased winter rainfall will be accompanied by a reduction in snow pack, earlier snowmelts, and increased runoff. (IPP Regional projections report 2008)."
Levels at Lake Mead are already at historically low ranges. This is a serious problem for a region which relies on drawing water from Lake Mead for all our daily needs. The Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA http://www.snwa.com/) wants to build a multi-billion dollar water pipeline to counties in northern Nevada through which they advocate pumping water siphoned from their resources. Northern Nevada is an agricultural area of the state, and is greatly concerned they will lose the water vital to maintaining livestock and crops. The SNWA has expressed their belief that the water needs of Las Vegas (a community which has no compunction regarding the extraordinary quantities of water needed to maintain a myriad of golf courses -- and which still permits the construction of new golf courses) represent a greater "right" to the waters of northern Nevada than any "right" possessed by the residents of northern Nevada. "Assurances" have been given by the SNWA that northern Nevadans would have water enough left to meet their needs (needs being defined by SNWA).
2) Concerning the question of, "What resources have you located to help you and your students understand climate forcings and feedbacks?", the many resources offered in the readings of Session 2 are likely to prove invaluable. There are 22 resources alone found within the resources listed as the ESSEA (Earth System Science Education Alliance) NASA Global Climate Change Education Modules website (http://essea.strategies.org/module.nasa.html). The ESSEA site also offered problem-based learning strategies to utilize in our classrooms (http://essea.strategies.org/inquiry.html). I'm certain I will be able to incorporate ideas from their list to help my students understand the concept of climate forcings and feedbacks.
Over the years, development has greatly altered the surface of the Las Vegas basin from natural to artificial. In so doing, the albedo has been drastically affected. As per the interactive "Earth's Albedo and Global Warming" (http://www.pbs.org/teacherline/courselinks/x7warq/), surfaces with high albedos reflect much insolation (as visible light) back towards outer space while surfaces with low albedos absorb much insolation, changing the energy of visible light to the longer wavelength infrared light (heat). The original surface of the Vegas area was light-colored, dry soil. This has largely been replaced by concrete and asphalt, hundreds of thousands of buildings with roofs darker than the original soil, and scattered golf courses and swimming pools.
The Center for Integrative Environmental Research released a report in 2008 titled Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Nevada (http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Nevada%20Economic%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf). In this article, the authors discuss that, "In the last century Nevada has experienced a slight increase in temperature, increased precipitation, a shortening of the snow season, and increased storms in general (USGCRP 2000). A .5°F increase over the last 100 years has resulted in more heat waves and more aridity (EPA 1998)." Regarding future impacts of climate change in Nevada, the authors state, "By 2100, the average temperatures for Nevada are expected to increase by 3-4°F in the spring and fall and by 5-6°F in the summer and winter (EPA report 1998). El Niño also is predicted to increase in frequency and duration as a result of global climate change (Trenberth and Hoar 1997). Increasing temperatures will affect the rate of water evaporation and precipitation in the state. Precipitation will become increasingly erratic in the coming century with decreases expected in the summer months of about 10 percent and potential increases of 15-40 percent in the fall, spring, and winter months (EPA Nevada Report, 1998). In general, Nevada is expected to have wetter winters and more arid summers as the subtropical dry zones for the whole planet are projected to increase (USGCRP 2000; Fang Ting, Science). Higher temperatures and increased winter rainfall will be accompanied by a reduction in snow pack, earlier snowmelts, and increased runoff. (IPP Regional projections report 2008)."
Levels at Lake Mead are already at historically low ranges. This is a serious problem for a region which relies on drawing water from Lake Mead for all our daily needs. The Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA http://www.snwa.com/) wants to build a multi-billion dollar water pipeline to counties in northern Nevada through which they advocate pumping water siphoned from their resources. Northern Nevada is an agricultural area of the state, and is greatly concerned they will lose the water vital to maintaining livestock and crops. The SNWA has expressed their belief that the water needs of Las Vegas (a community which has no compunction regarding the extraordinary quantities of water needed to maintain a myriad of golf courses -- and which still permits the construction of new golf courses) represent a greater "right" to the waters of northern Nevada than any "right" possessed by the residents of northern Nevada. "Assurances" have been given by the SNWA that northern Nevadans would have water enough left to meet their needs (needs being defined by SNWA).
2) Concerning the question of, "What resources have you located to help you and your students understand climate forcings and feedbacks?", the many resources offered in the readings of Session 2 are likely to prove invaluable. There are 22 resources alone found within the resources listed as the ESSEA (Earth System Science Education Alliance) NASA Global Climate Change Education Modules website (http://essea.strategies.org/module.nasa.html). The ESSEA site also offered problem-based learning strategies to utilize in our classrooms (http://essea.strategies.org/inquiry.html). I'm certain I will be able to incorporate ideas from their list to help my students understand the concept of climate forcings and feedbacks.
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